11月28日上午，在2021亚洲青年领袖论坛“国际金融与投资合作”主题论坛中，厚望投资董事长、元禾厚望成长基金管理合伙人曾之杰发表了题为《加速构筑风投行业的安全生态系统》的主旨演讲。

全文如下：

我做这个行业很长时间了，经历了很多起起伏伏以及这个行业的甜酸苦辣。

我是2000年左右加入这个行业的。当时我还在美国的硅谷念研究生，也是跟今天在座很多年轻同志们的年龄差不多。那个时候的美国还是一个非常友好、非常向上的国家。我们这些从亚洲去的年轻学生第一次接触风险投资这个事情，我也非常有幸在美国硅谷加入了华登国际这家风险投资机构。华登国际大家也知道，在美国和亚洲都是投资半导体最著名的机构之一。我在华登服务了8年，在华登之后，我又在中信资本服务了8年。2017年，我们成立了元禾厚望创新成长基金。前后加起来我的从业经历已超过了20年，想稍微跟大家分享一下这个行业的历史。

这个行业的历史是一个很古老的历史。最早在大航海时代，这个行业就有了。那时候整个欧洲非常渴望获得东方的丝绸香料，就有了这个所谓的代理人制度。因此，英国的信托制度、合伙制度的原型实际上是在几个世纪前就有了。当年，很多胆子大、没有财力的人去航海，去东方进行贸易，很多有资金但又不愿意去冒航海风险的人，他们会把资金交给这些比较有勇气或者是有渠道的人。航海回来之后，出去冒险的人可以分到20%的超额收益。我们研究20%超额收益，这种二八的超额收益分配比例实际上是从那个年代就已经有了。当然，还有一个说法是始于威尼斯时代，那就更早了，但是我们现在普遍认为应该是始于荷兰。荷兰当时是世界上商业程度最高的，所以这个时候应该有了这个制度的原型。然后，有了一些很小的风险投资企业。其实，这个制度发展还是在美国，当时美国通过了一个《中小企业法》。那是在上世纪四五十年代，有一个叫Doriot的将军，他做的公司就是依据美国的中小企业投资法，第一次在波士顿那边成立，这也是美国风险投资的开始。所以，我们说风险投资历史是一个创新的历史，是一个对未知领域探索的历史，另外还有就是制度创新。没有一个完善的制度，这件事情本身是很难往下做的。

中国最早于1985年开始有了这个行业。有一个公司其实很值得一提，叫中国新技术创业投资公司，这个公司大概现在已经没有了。但这的确是中国第一家做风险投资的公司，也是中国第一个由海外留学生归国之后成立的公司。到今天，在中国基金业协会备案的投资机构已经超过2万家，这也是一个有着里程碑效应的事情。中国从一个几乎没有风险投资，一个完全靠政府投资的一个国家，到现在有了2万家风险投资机构，这是非常壮观的，哪怕在全世界来讲也是一个非常大的数目。

我们这个行业的4个重大环节，就是募、投、管、退，从资金募集开始，再到投资，再到管理，再到退出。这里把2006年到2020年的数据展示一下，大家能够看到虽然每一年大家都在投资，但是每一年投资的重点是不一样的。大家能很清晰地看到，比如2020年对半导体的投资就突然加大了，这说明什么呢？我们这个行业实际上跟时代是息息相关。正因为2019年美国发动了对华为的制裁，才让我们国内半导体业界觉得重新构筑自己的产业链，构筑自己安全的生态系统的紧迫性。从2020年开始，中国对半导体的投资突然加大了。今年，我觉得占的比例会更大。大家能够看到，互联网一直是中国一个很重要的投资板块，但是这两年整个互联网的投资比例在下降。

我接着再分享一下我们的一些理念。我觉得首先，风险投资，你必须要有长期主义，你必须要有认知周期。我们这个行业的周期很长，每个基金的生命周期普遍都在8到10年。实际上大部分基金操作下来，像我自己做这行业做了20年，大部分基金到最后是会超过10年，那么需要投资者有极大的耐心。因为这个行业，企业很难拔苗助长，它有它的生长规律。让任何一个企业做到3年5年就能够取得巨大成功，很难，个别企业的确有可能，但是从90%的企业来讲，它的生长周期会更长。所以，我们这个行业实际上是需要面对周期的，要清楚地知道自己投的企业它在一个什么周期里面，然后你才能穿越周期。因为经济本身会有周期，行业会有周期，技术会有周期，所以我们这个行业实际上是一个必须穿越周期的行业。

接下来想跟大家分享几点。

第一点，投资是一个手艺活，它很难机构化。大家知道，在全球，哪怕是全球最大的机构黑石，或者凯雷、KPR、美国的红杉，其实人数都很少。黑石是全球最大的，也不过大概有1000个雇员而已，但是它包括很多产品线。其实，做创投的部门人是非常少的，美国的红杉到今天大概也就是四五十人的体制，没有那么多人。这个行业是一个非常少数的精英的行业。

第二点，建立系统性的认知能够有效避免周期的波动。以我们华登的过去来看，我们拿的企业平均都会超过10年以上，但是正因为你长期拿得住，你才能够获得巨大的成功。

第三点,在认知范围内投资能够带来长期和稳定的收益。

第四点，业勤于精，没有近道可以走。这个行业对人的知识结构的要求非常重要。就半导体，大家就能看到有几十个技术节点。如果你真的要去投资一家公司，首先，对这几十个技术节点你要懂；对行业的格局，你要懂；再来，对企业的上下游的关系、力量对比关系，你都要懂。所以做投资其实不是一件很容易的事情。除了要有基本的金融知识，更重要的是要有行业知识。在这之上，还需要有行业的人脉资源。如果没有这些的话，你也很难成为一个好的投资人。

具体讲到我们投资的办法。作为一个好的投资家，你首先对趋势要有个判断，这是非常重要的事情。如果你在2002年、2003年的时候去投互联网，那你应该是投对了。在2005年、2006年的时候，如果你去投一些消费品，那也是个很好的时机。所以对一个大的趋势的判断，也需要你对一个国家的发展趋势有一个判断，这一点非常重要。

第二点，具体到你怎么打。现在我们经常会讲到去铺一个赛道或者是用一个狙击手打法。每个机构有自己的文化特征，大的机构往往倾向于用赛道打法，把这个赛道上的头马、二马、三马全部给他投了，那么这些实力很雄厚的机构，像红杉、高瓴，他们往往会采取这些赛道打法。当然像我们这样的中小机构，我们更多采取的是狙击手打法。我们会研究透行业内每个节点上的关键公司，然后通过对这些关键节点公司投资来获取我们的超额收益。

简单介绍一下我们团队。我们这个团队是一个很长周期的团队，我们团队的合伙人的普遍特点是，大家都自己创过业，也都是高学历，大家在一起工作也很长时间了，经历了好几个阶段。我们现在大概管理规模也有40多亿人民币了。

谈一谈我们对今后10年的投资机会怎么看。我们觉得今后10年大的机会，第一还是在硬科技方面，以中美对抗为契机。其实，中美对抗带来的最大效应就是我们这个半导体业界，包括硬科技这个行业，大家前所未有的团结。像原来大的系统厂商很少愿意用国产产品，现在大家都主动开始试。所以我们觉得今后10年整个在硬科技方面我们会有很大的机会。另外一方面是新经济，新经济也是我们长期关注的一个重要赛道。因为中国经济的效率提高其实是通过技术手段的，我们定义的新经济其实就是能够用技术手段来改善他们的运行效率，改善他们的运行业态。

实际上，我们今后10年，更看好的是发现中国经济的新增长点与结构性机会，这是我们今后10年的一个核心战略。我们要顺势而为，紧抓硬科技投资的黄金10年。中国现在最大的任务是需要构筑一个相对安全的产业链。当然从大的产业逻辑来讲，我们完全独立封闭起来做一个产业链，第一是没有必要，第二也是没有可能，但是在这个情况下，我们要有一个相对安全的产业链，所以这也带来了很多的投资机会。大家也能看到，过去两三年，有很多半导体公司在科创板上市，很多不盈利的半导体公司现在也能够在科创板上市，这是国家对硬科技半导体行业的巨大扶持。我们相信在今后10年内，中国有机会。现在中国最大市值的半导体公司大概是在3000亿左右，就只有一家，就是中芯国际，那么除了这家公司，最大的大概都是千亿规模的。我们相信中国应该在10年之内会有万亿市值的半导体公司出现，我们也希望在这个过程当中能做出一点应尽的贡献。我们最近两年对半导体行业的每一个关键节点都进行了严密详细的梳理，现在对半导体的细分赛道上的很多关键节点公司，我们都是花了很大的力气的。

我们关注的第二块就是我刚才讲的新经济。新经济不仅仅是从企业的角度提高运营效率，更重要的一点是通过企业、通过技术对传统行业的改造，使企业提高了运营效率。从另外一点讲，通过对传统行业的改造，跟我们国家大的宏观政策，就是所谓的碳达峰，碳中和，也是有非常密切的关系。我们的一些投资策略：精准投资、持续赋能、构建生态。

我们这个团队的特点，是和企业家做长期的朋友，我的朋友圈里面大部分都是我自己投过的企业。我们是按照整个产业链在梳理，尤其这两年，我们的投资强度非常大。通过我们过往的部分新经济的案例能看出，这些大的互联网公司我们都没有漏掉，例如阿里、京东、美团，我们在过往历史上都有投资。

最后有一些我们自己的看法。过去的20年是风险投资在中国获得巨大发展的20年。中国现在仅次于美国，从投资量，投资案例的数量来讲，我们是全球第二大。对于初创企业而言，风险投资是最合适的融资方式之一。然后是以技术推动经济发展，以资本为技术革新护航。

从统计数据看大家也能知道，美国80年代以后经济成长或者所谓GDP的成长的主要核心动力是创新投资成长。大家也能看得到美国现在市值最大的公司，无论是谷歌，还是Amazon或Facebook，你能够想到的所有市值最大的高科技公司，其实无一例外最初都是由风险投资来推动的。所以，有一个很重要的观点：美国80年代以后传统经济的成长已经没什么太多的拉动作用，80年代以后经济成长主要是靠这些高科技公司，从这些企业的市值上，大家能够看得很清楚。

中国的这个趋势也很明显。过去10年、20年，经济当中最领风骚的还是这些高科技企业，当然我们国家现在对高科技企业的垄断属性也进行了有效的管理。还有一个数据想跟大家分享一下。亚洲的独角兽企业占了全球的50%，这个50%里面，绝大部分都在中国，那么说，中国的创新动力还在。哪怕看最近三年的数据，我们的独角兽企业跟美国来比的话，其实我们一点都不逊色。

最后我想说的是年轻人创业。其实年轻时创业是一件非常值得做的事情。对于现在的年轻人来讲，如果有机会创业，是非常值得鼓励的。我觉得人生当中如果能有一次创业的机会，无论成败，那都是人生非常宝贵的财富。

最后也祝愿大家，祝愿青年企业家们，事业顺利。谢谢！


On 28 November, Zeng Zhije, chairman of Oriza Investment and managing partner of Oriza Rivertown Capital, delivered a keynote speech titled “Stepping up Effort to Create a SecureEcosystem for Venture Capital Investment” at the International Finance and Investment Cooperation Forum of the Asia Youth Leaders Forum 2021.

The full speech is as below.

I want to thank the forum for giving me this opportunity to talk about my thoughts on the venture capital industry. I have been in the industry for over 20 years. So, I am kind of a veteran in this industry. To be honest, along the way, I have been through a lot of ups and downs and experienced mixed feelings.

I got involved in the industry around 2000. At that time, I was a graduate student in Silicon Valley in the United States, and I was about the same age as many young people here today. Back then, the United States was still a very friendly and progressive country. Young students from Asia like me got to know venture capital investment for the first time. I was lucky to have joined Walden International, a venture capital institution in Silicon Valley. Walden International is one of the most well-known institutions for investing in the semiconductor sector in the United States and Asia. I served at Walden International for 8 years. After that, I worked at CITIC Capital for 8 years. In 2017, we established Oriza Rivertown. So, I have been in the industry for over 20 years in total. I want to share with you the history of this industry.

It is actually an industry with longstanding history. It has been around since the Age of Sail. At that time, the whole of Europe was very eager to obtain the silk and spices of the East. And at that time there was already the so-called agent system. UK’s trust system and partnership system are, in fact, evolutions of this centuries-ago prototype. Back then, there were a lot of daring people who did not have the money to sail to and trade in the East. Many people who had the money but were unwilling to take the risk of sailing funded those who had the courage or channels. After coming back, those adventurers could get 20% of the excess earnings. In fact, the 20% excess earnings we study today was already there in that era. There is another version of it that this system dated back to the Venetian era, which is even earlier. However, we now generally believe that it should have originated in the Netherlands. At the time, the Netherlands was the most commercialized country in the world, so the prototype should have been around this age. The practice of investing venture capital in very small companies began in the United States. In the 1940s or 1950s, the United States passed the “Small Business Act”. General Doriot invested in a company in Boston under the “Small Business Investment Act” of the United States. It was the beginning of venture capital investment in the United States. This is why we say the history of venture capital investment is a history of innovation and exploration of uncharted territory, including system innovation. Without a sophisticated system, it's difficult to carry on.

In China, the industry has been around since 1985. There is one company that is worth mentioning. It was called China New Technology Entrepreneurship Investment Company. I don’t know if it still exists. It was the first company in China that engaged in venture capital, and it was the first company established by someone who had studied abroad. To date, more than 20,000 investment firms have registered with the Asset Management Association of China. It is a milestone. China has grown from a country with almost no venture capital firms and a country in which investment completely relies on the state to a country with 20,000 investment institutions. It is spectacular. It is quite an impressive number even in the world.

There are four major stages in our industry: fundraising, investment, management, and exit. Observing the data from 2006 to 2020 on this chart, you can see people are investing every year, but with different focuses. We can clearly see that, for example, in 2020 the investment in the semiconductor sector suddenly increased. What does this mean? In fact, our industry is closely related to the events of the times. The United States imposed sanctions on Huawei in 2019, so the domestic semiconductor industry realized the urgency of rebuilding its own industry chain and building its own secure ecosystem. Starting in 2020, China has suddenly increased its investment in semiconductors. I think the investment will be even greater this year. Take the Internet for another example, the Internet has always been a very important investment sector in China. But we can also see that in the past two years, the proportion of our investment in the Internet has declined. Next, I will share some of our ideas about the industry. First of all, to make venture capital investment, you must have a long-term perspective. You need to be aware of the cycle. The cycle of our industry is very long. The life cycle of each fund is generally 8 to 10 years. In fact, I have been in the industry for 20 years, and I have found that most funds have a cycle of more than 10 years. So, investors need to have great patience. Companies have their own growth pattern. It is very difficult to make a company achieve great success in 3 or 5 years. It is possible for some companies, but 90% of them will have a longer growth cycle. Therefore, this industry needs to face a long cycle. We need to know clearly which stage in the cycle the company we invest in is at. And then we can see through the cycle. The economy has its cycle, and so does the industry and technology. Venture capital investment is an industry that must see through cycles.

I also want to share with you four pieces of advice on the industry. Firstly, investment is a craft that is difficult to institutionalize. You many know that the world's largest investment firm Blackstone Group, or Carlyle Group, or KPR, or Sequoia Capital (United States), has a small number of employees. The Blackstone Group is the world's largest investment management company, with just about 1,000 employees, but it covers a lot of product lines. In fact, venture capital department has very few employees. Sequoia Capital has only 40 to 50 employees. So, this industry is a very small, elite industry.

Secondly, building systematic awareness can effectively avoid cyclical fluctuations. From my experience at Walden, it takes more than 10 years on average for the companies we invest in to return profits. It is precisely because of long-term investment that great success can be achieved.

Thirdly, investing within your cognitive horizons can lead to long-term and stable returns.

Fourthly, excellence in work is through diligence. There is no shortcut. This industry has very high requirements for people's knowledge structure. For example, the semiconductor sector has dozens of technology nodes. If you want to invest in a company, first of all, you must understand these nodes, and then you have to understand the landscape of the industry. You also need to understand the company’s relationship with upstream and downstream companies as well as the power dynamic. So, making an investment is not an easy thing. In addition to basic financial knowledge, comprehensive industry knowledge is more important. Besides, it also requires connections in the industry. Without these, you can hardly be a good investor.

Speaking of investment methods, as a good investor, first of all, it is necessary to have a judgment on the trends and decide what to invest. This is very important. In 2002, if you invested in the Internet, then your judgment was correct. In 2005 and 2006, if you invested in consumer goods companies, that should also be correct. Therefore, it is necessary to have a sound judgment on the general trend. It actually requires a correct judgment on the trend of the country.

The second point is about how to invest. We often talk about undifferentiated investment or targeted investment. Each institution has its own culture. Big institutions tend to adopt the “undifferentiated” method, investing in all the players in the sector, which requires strong financial strength. Institutions like Sequoia and Hillhouse tend to adopt this method, while small and medium-sized institutions like us are more likely to use the “targeted” method. We study these key companies at every node of the industry, and then get our excess earnings by investing in these companies at the key nodes.

Now, let me briefly introduce you to our team. Our members have all been through long cycles. The common characteristic of the partners in our team is that we have all started our own businesses, that we are highly educated, that we have worked together for a long time, and that we have gone through several stages. The investment we manage is close to more than 4 billion yuan.

Now, I'd like to share our views on the investment opportunities for the next 10 years. We think that in the next 10 years, one of the biggest opportunities is still in hard technology. The biggest effect of the China-US friction is the unprecedented unity in the semiconductor industry and the hard technology industry. Large companies that specialize in systems were rarely willing to use domestic products, but now they are active in trying them. We think in the next 10 years, we will have a great opportunity in hard technology. Another opportunity is in the new economy. The new economy is an important track that we have been focusing on. Because the efficiency of China's economy is actually improved through technical means. In fact, the new economy as we defined is an economic form that uses technological means to improve operational efficiency and formats.

In fact, we are focusing more on discovering new growth points and structural opportunities for the Chinese economy in the next 10 years. This is our core strategy for the next 10 years. That is to say, we must follow the trend and seize the golden 10 years of investment in hard technology. China's biggest task now is to build a relatively safe industry chain. From the perspective of the entire industry, it is not necessary or possible for us to be completely independent and develop a closed-circuit chain. But in this case, we must have a relatively safe chain, which also brings a lot of investment opportunities. As we can see, in the past two or three years, many semiconductor companies have been listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Many previously unprofitable semiconductor companies are also listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. This is because of China's huge support for the hard-tech semiconductor industry. We believe that in the next 10 years, China will see some results. Now the market value of the largest semiconductor company in China is about 300 billion yuan, and the only one of such valuation, which is Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Except for chip design companies, the highest valuation is probably in the hundreds of billions of yuan. We believe that China will have trillion-yuan semiconductor companies within 10 years. We also hope that in this process, we can make a contribution. During the last two years, we have carefully studied every key node on the semiconductor industry chain. In fact, we have spent a lot of energy on many companies at the key nodes on the semiconductor industry chain.

The second focus is the new economy that I just mentioned. The new economy is not just about improving the operational efficiency from a business perspective. More importantly, companies use technology to transform traditional industries so as to improve operational efficiency. On the other hand, the transformation of traditional industries is also closely related to China's macro policies, such as carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Here are some of our investment strategies: precise investment, continuous empowerment, and ecosystem building.

Our team is different in that we make long-term friends with entrepreneurs. Most of my friends are people whose businesses I have invested in. We make investment based on analysis of the entire industry chain. Especially in the past two years, we have invested a great deal. These are some cases of our past investment in new-economy industries. As we can see, we have invested in all these big Internet companies, including Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan.

Here is some of our thinking. The past 20 years have witnessed profound growth of venture capital investment in China. In terms of the number and sum of investment, China is now the second largest in the world, after the United States.

Venture capital is one of the most suitable financing methods for startups. It is important to promote economic development with technology and support technological innovation with capital. From the data, we can see that the economic growth – or GDP growth – of the United States after the 1980s was driven by investment in innovation. The most valuable companies in the United States – be it Google, Amazon, or Facebook – were initially funded by venture capital. There is a very important belief that, the traditional economy of the United States after the 1980s did not contribute much to its overall growth; instead it depended largely on these high-tech companies. From the market value of these companies, we can see this clearly. In fact, this trend is also evident in China. In the past 10 or 20 years, the fastest-growing companies are high-tech companies. Of course, China has taken measures to avoid monopoly of high-tech enterprises. There is another data that I would like to share with you. In fact, Asia is home to 50% of the world’s unicorn companies, and the vast majority of this “50%” are based in China. China's innovation momentum is still strong. According to data from the last three years, in terms of the number of unicorns, China is not inferior to the United States at all.

I would like to make a final point on young entrepreneurship. I think it is very worthwhile for young people to start a business. We encourage today's young people to start businesses. I think starting a business – whether it is successful or not –is a very precious experience in life. 

In the end, I’d like to wish all young entrepreneurs here all the best in your business. Thank you.